Where Did the Voters Go? Why did 23.8 Million Trump Voters Stay Home in the 2026 Midterms

Preliminary estimates indicate that approximately 124 million people voted in the 2026 midterm elections, marking the highest absolute number of votes ever cast in a U.S. midterm election. The University of Florida’s Election Lab estimates about 122.7 million ballots have already been counted in the November 3 midterm elections as of November 5th.

Preliminary turnout calculations using registration data put the turnout rate at 63%. This 2026 turnout rate of 63% falls below previous cycles, including the 2018 midterm turnout rate of 79% and the 2022 midterm turnout rate of 69%.

According to national voter trend models published by The New York Times on November 4, 2026, the estimated national vote shares across approximately 120 million voters are:
Democratic Party: 56%
Republican Party: 43%

So, the total number of votes cast for presidential candidates in the 2024 United States presidential election was 154,896,133, approximately 30-31 million voter difference between the presidential election and the midterm elections.

According to the official Federal Election Commission (FEC) 2024 General Election Results, the actual certified percentages of the Presidential General Election results national popular vote were: Donald Trump received 49.80% and Kamala Harris received 48.32% of the votes.

Where were those approximate 6% who voted for President Trump?

Based on the above text and logic that is provided, we calculated the missing votes directly from the official figures.

In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump received 77,138,274 votes (49.80% of the 154,896,133 total).

If every single one of those Trump voters had turned out for the 2026 midterms and voted Republican, the Republican party would have received exactly 77,138,274 votes. However, according to the 2026 estimates provided, the Republican Party received 43% of the roughly 124 million votes cast, which equals 53,320,000 votes.

To find out where those remaining voters went under our premise, we look at the difference:
Total 2024 Trump Voters: 77,138,274
Total 2026 Republican Voters: 53,320,000
Difference (Did not vote): 23,818,274 voters

The 6.8% Question

The "approximate 6%" drop that was noticed comes from comparing Trump's 2024 support share (49.8%) to the 2026 Republican support share (43.0%). Under the assumption that no voters switched parties, that 6.8% difference represents approximately 23.8 million individual 2024 Trump voters who did not participate in the 2026 midterms.

This drop-off aligns with historical patterns. Midterm elections universally see significantly lower voter turnout than presidential elections, with millions of voters from both major parties choosing to stay home.

Now, based on the metrics and the premise that 2024 voters stayed loyal to their parties, the Republican Party experienced a vastly larger turnout drop-off than the Democratic Party between the 2024 presidential election and the 2026 midterms. Because the Democratic party expanded its estimated national vote share to 56% in 2026, their raw vote total remained highly stable despite the typical lower midterm turnout.

Their Difference (Did not vote): 5,405,811 (vs 23,818,274)

This shows a huge, disproportionate decline!

The Republican party failed to turn out roughly 31% of the voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024, while the Democratic party managed to retain roughly 93% of its 2024 baseline voters, a remarkably high retention rate for a midterm election.

The Democratic coalition simply turned out at much higher relative rates than the Republican coalition.